A New Videogame Crash

IMO graphics still aren't there in terms of real life. I mean no matter how good a game has looked I can still that the difference between it and real life. I still think that DL only is far off due to broadband still not being that widespread in the states. Where I live at I only have Comcast and AT&T. But I know people only have access to that horrible slow and expensive satellite internet. As for EA and Activision I highly doubt they will go under plus the NFL loves EA and Madden sells by the boat load every sinlge year.

At this point I would welcome an industry crash with open arms. Not that I want people to lose their jobs or anything, but the current status quo just needs to change. What we're seeing in the "hardcore" market is increasing polarization. More and more middle-range developers/publishers decide to go all out and compete against the EA and Activision juggernauts. They spend ludicrious amounts of money (and mismanaged budgets seems to be another industry-wide problem, it's why you rarely see anyone willing to share just how much they actually spend on their projects these days) making their $60 AAA games, and a select few get lucky while the rest either go under or get downsized to browser/cellphone devs. This of course has a severe effect on the types of games being made as well, so as this trend continues you won't be seeing console games like Bayonetta or other "middle-class" games anymore. Not at the production values you're used to anyway.

Then there's the problem of entitled publishers nickel & diming their customers, lowering the bar for what we pay for through overpriced DLC, and eroding consumer rights by waging war on the used games market. If the rumors are true and there will be effective barriers against second hand trade in the next generation of consoles, I think that could actually be a good catalyst for an industry crash. I really doubt the average console player would be willing to buy as many $60 games as they do if it weren't for trading/reselling. $60 is a lot of money no matter what some devs/publishers say. People would overall be buying less games, and they'd be more wary on what they spend their precious money on. Then they'd only go for surefire hits which would only worsen the polarization problem I mentioned above, with even more developers disappearing.

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Originally Posted by Devil N

Hmm, a "crash" sounds a bit too dramatic, but I do think a major shift in priorities will be necessary for the industry to remain healthy. More and more effort is needed nowadays to produce a triple-A title, which means budgets are getting bigger and risks for publishers are getting greater, which in turn means publishers will only prefer more safe dime-a-dozen titles. Right now the market is getting saturated with those dime-a-dozen games, and that cannot keep on going forever. With the next generation of hardware, the average required budget to produce a game might grow too large and at that point something has to happen. I think the future lies with what we're currently calling indie games, i.e. smaller games with lower budgets and more creativity.

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It's funny, after I read this I read it again but this time replaced "game" with "movie" and you described current Hollywood practices exactly. I don't think there will be a crash, there's a definitely lull that happens between generations, but gaming seems to continue to be a strong force. If you think about how much time/playability you get out of a $60 game it still normally costs a lot less per hour than a movie though.

That said, I've already seen a the "future" of gaming as digital downloads and I'm not sure I'm on board. The good thing about buying physical copies is that as long as I've got the hardware I can always play it at some point. Unless they give us the ability to back up downloads and patches for digital stuff on consoles, I'll keep my money in other venues since there's no guarantee of being able to play them in the future.

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Originally Posted by kokujin

Not really, it gives smaller developers a chance to get their games out there and make money.

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It also allows bigger publishers/developers to have even more control than they have now and do more stuff that benefit themselves mostly, making gamers lives more difficult. How about every game from now on will only work with your account so you won't be able to trade/sell one ever again? Or, even worse, games that bind to the specific console you D/L them (rendering them useless if the console dies) or how about removing the option to play your games in a friend's console? (it is already a pain in the ass to do so like, in my case, trying to play my Rock Band DLC songs to a friend's console). And since it requires an internet connection to d/l games, what is stopping them to start adding DRM on every game that requires constant authentication (like many PC games)? And what if my connection or the server is down? What if they stop supporting older games? You know the drill.

I'm sorry but the more control they have the less freedom i will have as a gamer. All i want is to be able to play the games i bought whenever i want, wherever i want without restrictions and annoyances and after 20 years i want to be able to play them again on my retro console. Just like gamers do ever since gaming was born.

I don't see a crash in any sense of the word, but I can envision a future where the only games receiving AAA money will be multiplayer subscription based MMORPGs and the few established franchises with a built in audience. You really don't see many retail games anymore, and those which do come out struggle to do well enough to support these hefty budgets. Retail game prices are slashed so quickly, and that can't be good for the industry. Great for consumers, but I doubt retailers like that. They'll resort to stocking only the sure fire hits: GTA, Call of Duty, etc. Games with a long shelf life.

Digital distribution is the wave of the future, and it's basically here already thanks to XBL/PSN/iTunes/Steam. It's never been a better time to be a developer, able to take your idea and get it to market with little cost. I look at how Double Fine split its team to focus on making smaller games; putting all your eggs in one basket is a risky recipe. Better to minimize expenses and broaden your chances of success, which is where digital distribution thrives. I thought I was just about done with video games once the Dreamcast died and seemingly everything was an FPS or generic 3rd person action game, but here I am with an Xbox 360 and some 400 games all thanks to XBLA and XBLIG. I've embraced it, and I think games will mirror the transition music went through as CDs gradually gave way to MP3s.

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Originally Posted by Soulis

All i want is to be able to play the games i bought whenever i want, wherever i want without restrictions and annoyances and after 20 years i want to be able to play them again on my retro console. Just like gamers do ever since gaming was born.

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You'll be lucky to have a PS3/360 spinning in 20 years i think ;)

On a more serious note, i see two good big points in eletronically distributing games.. One is less pollution, resources used etc.. The whole inviromental aspect of it, you didnt see that one coming eh? The other is it makes indie-games happen more easily.

HOWEVER, the bad points outweigh these massivly in my opinion. Ill only touch on a few big ones since i could make this post bigger than the forum itself if i didnt limit myself.. The worst part is the control factor already mentioned by other. They will control how, when, even IF you can play the games. Its been in their EULA's for a long time, that you can not sell the game, and that you only pay for the LICENSE etc.. This has untill now been counteracted by consumers righs laws in many countries. With USA going berzerk on this in recent years, trying to control copyright, resale, the internet in general, and other countries being too afraid to oppose that, i see these things actually being enforced in the future. Hell my recently aquired Sutte Hakkun (a sfc game) from 1998 which just arrived has a huge "not for resale" type logo on the back of the box. This is something that should worry EVERYONE on this forum, since we are ALL retro-gamers here, even if we might also enjoy the latest blockbuster games. Forget retro-game stores, thrift stores, whatever.

Another huge negative point is again for us retro-gamers. If you dont even get an alternative to electronic distribution, your collections will dwindle and die, literally. You will have a harddrive (which likely wont last as long as a cartridge or cd-media) full of games, but nothing to show your friends or other collectors. Your pride and joy will be reduced to the 1's and 0's of programming. No nice boxes, no manuals or inlays or anything, How about that for sucking the joy out of retro-gaming culture?

And the third negative point, which will be the last ill share, is the financial issue (combined with enviromental). If they cut down on production costs, which granted isnt HUGE for paper, ink and plastic (and again this would be good from the enviromental point of view, and will most likely work fine for many gamers who dont collect games) but still significant , shouldnt the economical savings be passed on down and benefiting the end consumer as well? Yes it should. Does it? Hell no. I dont know the american PSN's (since i hardly ever play PC games, i have no real grip on Steam etc either) prices, since i hardly ever look, but the EU's keep prices on games just as high on download, as for the boxed retail game at your favourite store. and im talking recommended retail price here, so you could get away noticably cheaper for a physical copy of the game too. So there the greed comes into play, which will hurt you, the gamer. Why should you pay for material, logistics, taxes on these, etc, if they are not being used? Electronic distribution SHOULD be an option, for the enviromentally consious gamer, but i believe not the ONLY option. We are quickly turning the earth to shit, and i believe that even if we have the option left to buy a physical gamebox etc, many will go for the electronic distributed version, especially if it represented the savings in price accurately.. I could even see a premium service or whatever, where you buy the game, and can tick in the option of having a physical copy (retail box + manual) shipped to you for a nominal fee to cover the production costs of that + shipping, as a valid option. That would still help reduce logistics etc, and make a significant enviromental impact for the better.

Just my thoughts on the semi-off topic discussion.

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Originally Posted by grimm

Electronic distribution SHOULD be an option, for the environmentally conscious gamer, but i believe not the ONLY option.

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I will agree with this. Having both options is the only way to go.