Will the Wii U die even quicker than the Wii?

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Originally Posted by TVC 15

I think we really need to stop harping on about how the Wii U is the next Dreamcast or Atari 5200 or whatever etc, without the actual hardware and software released yet theres only so much we can project about the Wii U's market performance, until we actually see data and opinion on how warmly people receive it.

Remember the whole 3DS forum moaning, about the hardware being underpowered, overpriced and gimmicky? I'd probably agree with most of those assertions, but it seems the market didn't listen to the mad ramblings of a few internet forumites, the 3DS is selling profitably against much better tech in the Vita.

But again I wouldn't use the 3DS market performance as a metric for how the Wii U is going to do either, that would contradict my point about all these armchair predictions. The market is not like 2000, the market is not like 1982, and this is not the handheld market neither. The rules are perpetually changing, more so this time round as more and more companies want a slice of the interconnected living room pie.

Apple just released the iPad mini for around £260 (do your own math Americans!) nearly the same as the base Wii model here in Blighty. iOS may lack a decent gaming interface, but people are really missing where the ball has been kicked here, and what Nintendo's fight is really all about, carving some relevance in an increasingly hybridised internet/media/tv/ homogenised world. Gaming is unfortunately alongside all other content; film, music and books being eroded into a content driven bitesize sell all mush, that is more about the easy flow of electronic content and capital (money) rather than the actual content in the content (HUH?) !

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I wouldn't compare the Wii U to 3DS, 3DS started off slow because it was released at a time when consumers were disinterested in a new portable and were just starting to adapt to the idea of downloading games on Androids. People were also hyped about VITA and were anticipating that it would be better executed, only then to be let down.


I don't see the Wii U doing well, I rarely hear anyone talking about it. I don't see billboards or advertisements for it like I saw with Wii 6 years ago. I expected to see one at Wal-Mart, and have yet to. There are reports that pre-orders were sold out among its September 13 press, but nothing to back them up or any numbers. Just exaggerated numbers from Nintendo fanboys.


There's really nothing about it that makes me think it will be in the same league as Wii. Plus how is it going to do well if people and consumers alike know little about it?


It would seem that in Europe, it has quite of a following.

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Originally Posted by gamevet

I don't think the casual Wii owner even knows about Wii U. Just like most of the consumer market doesn't know anything about the next product coming down the pike.

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The funny thing is that Wii was hyped throughout the summer of 2006 and that its anticipation was very high. Also pre-orders sold out instantaneously and there were numbers to back that up. And there was plenty of billboards and ads.

I also remember shortages being widely reported. No such case with Wii U.


I believe that the casuals who will eventually learn about Wii U, will view it as an expensive upgrade with little to offer them. The marketing so far has been very supbar and that can certainly be vouched for.

Um, last I checked the Wii U's preorders had sold out.

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Originally Posted by TrekkiesUnite118

Um, last I checked the Wii U's preorders had sold out.

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There's no numbers to back it up. Plus I have YET to hear of any widespread shortages. It could be based off of 200,000-300,000 day one units. So you can't assume based on what is reported if they aren't any numbers to back it up. If your going back that up on Best Buy, its probably because there weren't that many units shipped to them in the first place. Alot of the pre-orders could be Nintendo fanbase numbers. Without actual numbers, you cannot assume any success.

Plus, they seem widely available on Ebay.

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_trks...at=0&_from=R40

Nintendo has also put a global projection on Wii U within its first 6 months:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/weaker-...recast-6398785


5 Million worldwide in 6 months indicates that the manufacturer is probably not mass producing the units and is only shipping no more than around 2 million during Christmas.

That's people selling their preorders on ebay. The thing is sold out on not only Best Buy but Gamestop, Wal-Mart, Target, and many other stores last I checked. It's looking to be identical to what the Wii was like before it launched.

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Originally Posted by TrekkiesUnite118

That's people selling their preorders on ebay. The thing is sold out on not only Best Buy but Gamestop, Wal-Mart, Target, and many other stores last I checked. It's looking to be identical to what the Wii was like before it launched.

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I doubt it, based on the Company's own projection:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/weaker-...recast-6398785


5 Million worldwide in 6 months is vindictive of the fact that the console is probably not being mass produced. That means probably only 400,000 will be sold domestically around launch.

What do you think the Wii Sold in it's first few months? At around 5-6 months it had sold about 5-6 Million.

Nintendo has just OFFICIALLY released the pre-order numbers for Wii U:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...200688198.html


"Mr. Iwata said all prelaunch Wii U orders were taken in less than two days at U.S. videogame retailer GameStop Corp., GME +0.22% with more than 250,000 people put on a waiting list."

Just as I suspected, its base numbers.

One, that's only for Gamestop. That doesn't include all the other stores with sold out preorders. The other key note in that bit is that it says "250,000 on a waiting list". If that's like it was for the Wii that means 250,000 people who couldn't get a preorder and are on a waiting list for the next available ones.

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Originally Posted by TrekkiesUnite118

What do you think the Wii Sold in it's first few months? At around 5-6 months it had sold about 5-6 Million.

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Actually, no. Wii sold 7 million worldwide in it's first several months and 10 million in 9 months.

You guys have to understand the main problem here.

"Guns don't kill people, people with guns kill people".

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Originally Posted by TrekkiesUnite118

One, that's only for Gamestop. That doesn't include all the other stores with sold out preorders. The other key note in that bit is that it says "250,000 on a waiting list". If that's like it was for the Wii that means 250,000 people who couldn't get a preorder and are on a waiting list for the next available ones.

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GameStop is UNRELIABLE with sales numbers do to its well known policy of allowing its employers to sell reserves and for causing shortages due to the employers picking up the pre-orders for themselves.


I can definitely say, that seeing that this is Nintendo's estimate, these are indeed the actual pre-order numbers.


"Mr. Iwata said all prelaunch Wii U orders were taken in less than two days at U.S. videogame retailer GameStop Corp., GME +0.22% with more than 250,000 people put on a waiting list.
And the actual total first week pre-orders for Wii were 600,000. Far more than this estimate.

It reached almost 10 million in 8 months. In the first 5 months (April of 2007) it was almost at 6 million. So in the first 5-6 months it sold about 6 million. The Wii U's projected sales aren't that much lower. Not enough to make it seem like they weren't expecting to sell any or that the sold out preorders are ridiculously small numbers.

In it's first week on the market the Wii sold 600,000 units in the US, considering we have over 1/3 of that waiting to get a preorder at one store alone, I'd say things look pretty good for it.

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Originally Posted by Thunderblaze16

You guys have to understand the main problem here.

"Guns don't kill people, people with guns kill people".

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The more I learn about Wii U, the more I've become convinced its going to have a lackluster launch.

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Originally Posted by TrekkiesUnite118

It reached almost 10 million in 8 months. In the first 5 months (April of 2007) it was almost at 6 million. So in the first 5-6 months it sold about 6 million. The Wii U's projected sales aren't that much lower. Not enough to make it seem like they weren't expecting to sell any or that the sold out preorders are ridiculously small numbers.

In it's first week on the market the Wii sold 600,000 units in the US, considering we have over 1/3 of that waiting to get a preorder at one store alone, I'd say things look pretty good for it.

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Like I said, Gamestop is not reliable or reflective of actual proper consumers. They sell people's reserves and allow employers to get first dibs on launch SKUs. I've spoken to several former GS employers who've told me about how crooked this policy is.


Also again, Iwata stated that "250,000" is ALL the pre-orders they shipped.