There's no indication that either console will be much different this time around. The PS4 will be ambitious and clunky, the Xbox will be more user friendly due to Windows and a ton of Microsoft services people already know how to use.
Sony's supporting a modified DirectX 11 API, and it's likely they'll both be running PC ports. Valve's going to enter the market with their own hardware and clones.
We can call the consumer stupid as much as we want. I think Microsoft's going to pay for the 3rd party exclusives that matter, and lock their brand to other things that really matter, like ESPN, HBO and UFC on demand channels. All they need to do is reform a few policies on content updates, and indies will flock back to them if they're dominant platform anyway. Going forward, selling the 360 "Stingray" as an add-on, leads me to believe there will be an overhaul for existing 360 owners as well, making Xbox Live itself a better all around media platform.