How do you feel about clones.

[Tanegashima]

Clones will not be the only option if it's 20 years from now, at least not for cartridge based systems.

The oldest atari 2600s are over 40 years old and 90% still work flawlessly. There is no reason that with proper care these systems won't last a lifetime. CD systems are one thing, but even they, with proper care should last just as long excepting manufacturing defects/poor assembly (i.e. the Dreamcast which has a unique drive system that makes it vulnerable to said problems, but this does not exclude it from being repaired.)

I might add that when it comes to proper care, especially of a motor, the # 1 consideration is that they have to be used. If a motor just sits and is never used, it will wear out a whole helluva lot faster than a motor that goes through light to moderate use. People also forget that moving parts need to be lubricated. Even on a CD motor. After a decade, people assume this stuff takes care of itself. No lubrication, proper internal cleaning etc. means the moving parts wear to the point where they become irreparable. The little gears and magnetic motors still need to be lubricated and if that stuff dries up, the parts will make actual contact with each other and chip and crack etc. Many people forget that something as small and simple as a CD motor still needs some of same care as a much larger motor/engine.

If kept away from corrosion, systems are well maintained, even a CD based system should last a lifetime even if parts need to be replaced. There is no reason that a Sega CD laser could not replaced, if it ever wears out in the first place. This technology simply isn't old enough to attach a life span to it. 90% of this crap fails, dies etc. because of improper care or because it's made obsolete and people simply throw it away or neglect it.

I mean, there are firearms (which I understand are VERY different) that are over 500 years old that still work FLAWLESSLY because they were always well taken care of. Which is a feat when you consider the fact that:
A) they were made with unfinished steel...so there was nothing but a layer of animal fat/beeswax that kept moisture away from the steel.
B) they were always cleaned with straight water and maybe a little soap
C) they used animal oils for lubrication instead of petroleum based products which can in fact foster corrosion in unfinished steel.
D) the metals were far more impure, though in many cases the steel was of quality that is comparable to many of today's steel products, it was far more likely to corrode.
E) The actions used (i.e. flintlocks/wheellocks) were FAR more complicated than the mechanisms in todays firearms with upwards of 4 separate springs and sears that acted in PERFECT timing.
F) Not to mention, they were all made of wood or ivory stocks which are organic and would be lucky to last 100 years without dissolving. But once again, proper care and storage has most everything to do with it.
These sorta things have all the odds against them, but proper care has kept them alive. There is no reason to think any different about these systems.